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Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve.

Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition, forecast models are now used to determine future conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus helps to narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome,

 

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This website is dedicated to the memory of Major Oscar Singer, Author of  Singer's Lock The Revolution in the Understanding of Weather.


The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed and the providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance and fitness
for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use the data. The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and
must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening
o official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.



 

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